Watch out all you dollar hoarders: the Chinese yuan is coming for you. Many financial analysts think the dollar under your pillow may soon be worth less than the rate at which you bought it. They think you run the risk of vomiting most of what you have swallowed since the forex crisis started. With the yuan going to be directly available to Nigerians — effectively eliminating the “middleman” called dollar — it is safe to say the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has made a bold move in its controversial management of the exchange rate crisis, a move that some analysts believe may ease the demand pressure on the dollar, even if the gains would only be marginal.
For those who may still be in the dark, the news is that Nigeria and China have agreed in principle to a yuan swap. In simple English, it means Nigerians and Chinese would not need the dollar when they do international business with each other. Yuan will now be directly used. Currently, a Nigerian importer needs to buy dollars from the bank (or black market) in order to pay for Chinese goods and services, which are priced in dollars. This automatically puts pressure on the exchange rate. The dollar is then converted to yuan. In between, conversion charges are incurred. Now Chinese exports to Nigeria will be priced in yuan. That is the deal.
Why does a yuan swap matter? Good question. China is the biggest exporter to Nigeria — to the tune of over $14 billion yearly. Therefore, we can say the demand for dollar will drop by at least $14 billion when we do the swap deal. Mr. Godwin Emefiele, the CBN governor, will certainly sleep better if $14 billion can be struck off the FX demand list. That also means the naira may begin to lose less energy against the dollar. Many economists and experts still find it unpardonable that the government of President Muhammadu Buhari has refused to officially devalue the naira, and the jury is still out on the resort to unorthodox measures to “protect” the national currency.
Lest I forget, no deal has been signed yet. There are, thus, no details to discuss. By the time the CBN puts pen to paper with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), we will get to know how much is involved in the swap, how long the deal will last and what the exchange rate will be. The good news is that unlike many currencies, the exchange rate of yuan is not tied directly to the dollar. Rather, it is determined by a basket of currencies, even though the dollar is still a key determinant. There is a reference rate used by PBOC to attain “parity” — but we all know that the yuan is undervalued for economic reasons. Nigerians could, therefore, expect to buy a cheaper yuan.
Before we celebrate too much, there are possible downsides. The CBN must look at the details with a fine toothcomb, because the devil could be in the details. More importantly, Buhari must show the “political will” to protect Nigeria’s interest. He has said the right things — by insisting that Nigeria will not become a dumping ground for Chinese exports, and that the Chinese should come and establish factories in Nigeria. This is beautiful. The next thing is action. We have heard a lot of that rhetoric in the past but a lack of will means we do not follow through. The Chinese could end up enjoying all the benefits while we come out empty-handed.